Decisions, Decisions: How High Court Could Rule on Health

[WSJ Law Blog]

The Supreme Court is ruling next week on the Obama health law. Of the many possible scenarios, here are the most likely four, shown in order of how much of the law would be struck down.

Scenario #1: The entire law is upheld.

After all is said and done, the high court may conclude—as the majority of lower courts did—that Congress was acting within its powers under the Constitution when it required most Americans to carry health insurance or pay a penalty. That provision was at the center of the two-year legal battle, and if it survives, the rest of the law is likely to stay as well.

Such a ruling would be a victory for Democrats and President Barack Obama, who had passed the biggest reworking to the health system since the creation of Medicare in the 1960s and faced the prospect of the court nullifying their effort. It would also avert disruption for hospitals, doctors and employers who have spent more than two years preparing for changes in the law.

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